MPX Weather Forecast Discussion - September 8, 2025

645
FXUS63 KMPX 080513
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chance for showers and thunderstorms early Monday, with
  better chances late Monday and Tuesday. The risk for severe
  weather is low.

- Temperatures warm back into the 70s for the upcoming work week.

- Some elevated smoke returns this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Today through Tuesday...Early afternoon satellite imagery and
surface obs showed shallow cumulus and high pressure across the
region. Winds were light, and temperatures were in the low 60s.
For the rest of today, expect partly cloudy skies, with maybe a
couple more degrees of warming. Later this evening skies will
clear as we loose peak heating and the surface based clouds
dissipate. The surface high pressure will slowly meander
eastward, allowing southerly winds to develop overnight. This
should keep temperatures a bit warmer, reducing the risk of
patchy frost.

This warm air advection will lead to isentropic ascent and some
cloud development late tonight into early Monday. There is a
small chance for light showers across southwest Minnesota, but
for now opted to do only sprinkles. Rain chances increase
throughout the day on Monday, but most location should stay dry
until the evening when better forcing of a shallow upper level
wave arrives. The areas most likely to receive rain are north of
I-94. Amounts will be fairly light, generally less than a half
inch for most locations, but small pockets of heavier rain are
possible under thunderstorms.

Speaking of thunderstorms, the deep layer shear and mid level
lapse rates continue to support the threat for a few stronger
storms, but the lack of low level warm, moist air keep the
actual CAPE values at only around 1000 J/kg. For that reason,
SPC continues with only general thunder, as the lack of
instability should keep the main thunderstorm threats to
localized heavy rain, and small hail. On Tuesday the upper
level wave continues toward the Great Lakes, and any surface
feature that could be a focus for storms gets washed out as
upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS.

Last but not least, HiRes guidance indicates some elevated
smoke returning late Monday into Tuesday. It should remain
elevated, but could limit afternoon highs and instability.

Wednesday through Saturday...Confidence in the weather for the
middle and end of next week is low. Winds are light, and there
are a few weak features that bring small chances for rain.
Overall, it looks like a drier pattern with a narrow ridge
keeping subsidence in place. However, there will be a trough to
the west, and also another trough dropping down from Canada to
the east that could bring some clouds and rain chances. For now,
continued with the blended guidance which has 10 to 20 percent
chances for rain periodically at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Clear skies and light winds overnight. We could see some fog
form overnight as well in the usual spots in valleys and near
rivers. So this means EAU has the chance for some periods of
MVFR and maybe even IFR. Added a TEMPO for the most likely time
of BR/FG in the EAU TAF. Elsewhere confidence was not high
enough for a FG or BR addition. As temperatures start to warm
today, higher winds will begin to occur. We expect to see
southerly winds with gusts of 20 to 30 knots at all terminals.
Near the end of this period the potential for showers or
thunderstorms starts to increase. With the best chance generally
north of our terminals have opted to keep TAFs dry for now.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...NDC